Incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who is vying for a second term, has scored a big win in general elections, sources close to the premier said on Wednesday.
Iraqis on Tuesday headed to the polls for a general election that came as the country experiences a rare moment of calm in a region roiled by recent conflicts.
The next premier must answer to Iraqis seeking jobs, better infrastructure, and improved education and health systems in a country plagued by corruption and mismanagement.
But he also faces the exacting task of maintaining the delicate balance between Iraq’s allies, Iran and the US, even more so now that the Middle East is undergoing seismic changes, with new alliances forming and old powers weakening.
Iraq’s electoral commission is expected to announce preliminary results later in the evening, but an official close to the premier said that his “Reconstruction and Development list has secured a major victory”.
Another two sources said Sudani’s alliance has “won the largest bloc,” with approximately 50 seats.
Sudani has emerged as a major force in Iraqi politics, after he was brought to power three years ago by an alliance of pro-Iran groups.
Difficult Task
Once final results are confirmed, lawmakers are set to begin negotiations to nominate the prime minister – an often painstaking task that has at times taken months.
With an outright majority almost impossible to achieve by any single list, the role of prime minister is determined by the coalition that can secure enough post-election allies to form the largest alliance.
In Iraq, the role of prime minister goes to the Shiite majority, the speaker of parliament to a Sunni Muslim, and the largely ceremonial presidency goes to a Kurd.
In previous parliaments, Shiite-majority parties have struck compromise deals to work together and form a government.
Sudani was brought to power in 2022 by the Coordination Framework, an alliance of powerful pro-Iran Shiite parties who formed the largest parliamentary bloc.
A senior Iraqi politician told AFP last month that the Coordination Framework is divided over supporting Sudani, with former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki reportedly likely to oppose a second term for the incumbent.
Always a Balance
Even as Iraq tries to move past two decades of war since a US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, the country of 46 million suffers from poor infrastructure and public services, mismanagement and corruption.
Many Iraqis who boycotted the elections told AFP the vote wouldn’t bring meaningful change to their daily lives and said that it was a sham that only benefits political elites and regional powers.
Sudani has nonetheless vowed to continue on the path of “reconstruction and development.”
During his three-year tenure, Baghdad has been transformed into a bustling construction hub, with new tunnels and bridges springing up across the city.
He also maintains that his government helped shield Iraq from regional turmoil in the past two years.
The next premier will have to maintain the balance between Iran and the US, the long term foes for whom Iraq has often served as a proxy battleground.
Since the US-led invasion, Iran has held sway in Iraqi politics, not only backing influential politicians but also supporting armed groups there.
The past two years have seen Israel inflict heavy losses on Tehran-backed groups in the region, and Iran itself was on the receiving end of an unprecedented Israeli bombing campaign that led to a 12-day war in June.
In addition to maintaining its foothold through the groups it backs, Tehran is also seeking to keep the Iraqi market open to products from its crippled economy.
Washington meanwhile hopes to cripple Tehran’s influence, and has long pressured Baghdad to disarm Iran-backed groups.
