• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Wednesday, July 16, 2025
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Dont Miss

Theresa May’s Colossal Miscalculation

James F. Downes and Chris Hanley by James F. Downes and Chris Hanley
06/09/17
in Dont Miss, Featured, Opinion
Photo: Associated Press

Photo: Associated Press

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Only a month ago, most opinion polls in Britain were forecasting a massive majority for the center-right Conservative Party and electoral oblivion for the center-left Labour Party. At the same time, Prime Minister Theresa May was also on course to secure a large majority in the House of Commons before the upcoming Brexit talks with the European Union.

Fast forward a few weeks, and an astonishing process has taken place in British politics. With the majority of seats now counted and the Party forecast to take 318 seats, it is no longer possible that the Conservative Party will be able to reach the 326 seats in the House of Commons that would also give them a working majority in Parliament. There will no longer be a strong and stable government by the time Brexit negotiations officially start on the 19th June.

The exit poll forecast conducted by the BBC shows that the Conservatives will likely finish on 318 seats, with the Labour Party on 261. Whilst the Conservatives may be able to form a working coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party, it is not clear how effective and longstanding such an agreement could be.

Theresa May has miscalculated big time in calling the election in order to cement her legitimacy as the leader and gain a decisive mandate for the upcoming talks on Brexit with the EU. The gamble had clearly not paid off and a resurgent Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn has breathed new life into British politics.

Theresa May could be the shortest lived British prime minister in 94 years since the Conservative Andrew Bonar Law who lasted 209 days between 1922 and 1923. The former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan once remarked on what was the most difficult about his job, ‘Events dear boy, events’ have arguably led to Mrs. May’s downfall. What has therefore led to this remarkable turn of events?

There are two main explanations that are likely to account for this remarkable change of events. However, a full post-mortem will likely take place in the coming weeks ahead.

Firstly, the Conservative Party’s poorly run campaign can be seen as an important factor in why they were unable to win a majority. The initial focus of their campaign was on the Brexit issue and things took a turn for the worse when Theresa May flip-flopped and made a U-turn on the ‘dementia tax’.

The Conservative campaign has appeared stale, with some commentators remarking that policies had not been effectively costed and was one of the worst run campaigns ever.

Secondly and in contrast to the Conservative Party’s campaign, the Labour Party’s campaign has in contrast been seen as a highly effective campaign, with Mr. Corbyn mobilizing large numbers of younger voters at rallies and being mobbed by supporters. Mr. Corbyn has shown himself to be a natural campaigner. Theresa May, by contrast, was viewed as rigid and inflexible, especially for calling the election and then not agreeing to a face-to-face debate with the other main party leaders.

Theresa May will have to be held accountable for the Conservative Party’s failing to get a majority and for running a dismal campaign. Who then would be able to replace Theresa May?

Key Tory figures such as the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson alongside the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond are likely to be in the running. There may also be another General Election in the midst if no working arrangement for the formation of the next government can be reached. With such a shock result and so many uncertainties to come, stay tuned to your seats as the drama is far from over.

________________

James F. Downes is a Visiting Scholar in European Politics, European Union Academic Programme Hong Kong and Director of British & European Politics at Parliament Street.

Chris Hanley is Group Leader at Kantar Public Brussels.

Share5Tweet
James F. Downes and Chris Hanley

James F. Downes and Chris Hanley

Related Posts

People from Nordic countries participate in the 2025 WorldPride DC parade and celebrate LGBTQ rights in Washington DC, USA, Saturday, June 7, 2025.
Featured

Sweden Cuts Red Tape for Changing Legal Gender

by Staff Writer with AFP
July 16, 2025
Ursula von der Leyen
Featured

EU Ministers Weigh Response to Latest Trump Tariff Threat

by Staff Writer with AFP
July 14, 2025
UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese
Featured

UN Says US Sanctions on Expert Sets ‘Dangerous Precedent,’ Must Be Reversed

by Staff Writer with AFP
July 11, 2025
Women in Afghanistan wearing a blue burqa
Featured

ICC Seeks Arrest of Taliban Leaders Over Persecution of Women

by Staff Writer with AFP
July 9, 2025
Kenya, Nairobi, 2024-07-16. Protesters in the streets
Democracy at Risk

Nairobi Tense as Kenya Marks Democracy Uprising

by Staff Writer with AFP
July 7, 2025
President Donald Trump
Featured

Trump Wins ‘Phenomenal’ Victory as Congress Passes Flagship Bill

by Staff Writer with AFP
July 4, 2025
Next Post

Supreme Irony In Gulf -- Cartoon/Latuff

Qatari Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. (Photo: AFP)

Turkey Has Price To Pay For Backing Qatar

Please login to join discussion

Recommended

People from Nordic countries participate in the 2025 WorldPride DC parade and celebrate LGBTQ rights in Washington DC, USA, Saturday, June 7, 2025.

Sweden Cuts Red Tape for Changing Legal Gender

July 16, 2025
Ursula von der Leyen

EU Ministers Weigh Response to Latest Trump Tariff Threat

July 14, 2025
UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese

UN Says US Sanctions on Expert Sets ‘Dangerous Precedent,’ Must Be Reversed

July 11, 2025
Women in Afghanistan wearing a blue burqa

ICC Seeks Arrest of Taliban Leaders Over Persecution of Women

July 9, 2025
Kenya, Nairobi, 2024-07-16. Protesters in the streets

Nairobi Tense as Kenya Marks Democracy Uprising

July 7, 2025
President Donald Trump

Trump Wins ‘Phenomenal’ Victory as Congress Passes Flagship Bill

July 4, 2025

Opinion

Donald Trump

Fact vs. Fiction: The Trump Administration’s Dubious War on Reverse Discrimination

June 18, 2025
Tens of thousands of protestors shut down Fifth Avenue in Manhattan on Saturday, April 5, 2025, protesting the Trump administration's abuse of the separation of federal powers as well as the deep cuts to governmental services overseen by presidential advisor Elon Musk.

Civil Society Is Holding the Line. Will Washington Notice?

June 17, 2025
A Black Lives Matter mural in New York City.

Fuhgeddaboudit! America’s Erasure of History

April 2, 2025
Bust of Deputy Rubens Paiva in the Chamber of Deputies

Democratic Brazilians Are Still Here

March 18, 2025
A woman from Guatemala

Dispatch From Central America

January 28, 2025
US President Donald Trump

Dear Trump Supporters: Is This the America You Wanted?

January 28, 2025
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post