• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Wednesday, March 29, 2023
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

Chaos and Confusion over Brexit Complicates Sealing the Deal

James F. Downes by James F. Downes
10/10/18
in Opinion
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May addresses a press conference at the end of the EU Informal Summit about Brexit in Salzburg

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May at press conference at the end of the EU Summit on Brexit in Salzburg. Photo: AFP

19
SHARES
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

The recent Conservative and Labour Party conferences are a testament to the political polarization surrounding Brexit. The British electorate is divided too, with recent opinion polls showing that voters are unsure whether the decision to leave the European Union was right or wrong. The government is facing crisis and confusion after the failed E.U. summit in Salzburg, leading to sharp criticism of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan by key Conservative politicians such as former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Time is running out, and the growing division is not helping in reaching a deal.

There has been much talk about May facing a leadership threat from inside her Conservative party alongside rumors of a snap general election being called should the British government fail to negotiate a coherent deal. These are all unsubstantiated and unlikely to become reality anytime soon. It is likely that many Conservative politicians view May’s position as a poisoned chalice due to the political uncertainty over Brexit and would rather not run for her office.

May’s Problematic Chequers Deal

Last month’s Salzburg Summit on Brexit highlighted the fundamental problems of May’s so-called Chequers Deal, with many commentators believing that Britain is now back to square one.

The most significant problems of May’s plan are how to deal with the Northern Ireland border and whether Britain would be allowed to stay in the single market. For many Brexiteers, May’s Chequers Deal is too “soft” of a Brexit, with too many concessions made to the European Union.

It is very unlikely that May can come up with a radically different plan in the time that she has left while also pleasing her Brexiteer politicians. For May’s deal to be successful, Brexiteers must be willing to make compromises with the prime minister on important issues such as the freedom of movement and the single market.

Many Leavers talked about striking trade deals straight after the referendum in 2016. However, fast forward two years, and it becomes clear that very little progress has been made. It is still unclear if and when the economic nirvana that many Leavers predicted can be achieved. What we do know is that markets dislike economic volatility and, in my opinion, the current lack of a plan is likely to destabilize Britain’s financial situation more as the clock ticks further to the deadline. This could all change, however, if a decisive deal is struck at the next summit.

Economic Volatility

Two years ago, when the landmark Brexit referendum took place, we witnessed the economic volatility that the vote brought to the financial markets. The figure below shows the economic downfall as the vote unfolded with the pound falling sharply.

Chart showing the fall of the pound after the Brexit referendum
As soon as the result of the Brexit referendum came in, the pound fell sharply. Image: TradingView.com

If a No Deal scenario takes place on March 29, 2019, it is quite possible a similar development will take place. This would hurt Britain and its standing in the world economy. The following economic confusion and chaos would almost certainly affect ordinary British citizens. Therefore, it is of paramount importance that a deal similar to the Chequers proposal, but with the support of the British Parliament, can be struck with the European Union by the end of the year. Staying in the single market will be a massive positive factor for Britain’s economy and should be on the table in a revised deal that the British government discusses with the European Union at the summit of next week.

In the last few days, there has been optimistic talk from top E.U. officials about a Brexit deal being reached by the end of the year. Yet, there is little agreement on crucial dividing lines such as remaining in the single market and how to avoid a divide on the Irish border. The next E.U. Summit on Brexit will take place in seven days, and it is looking increasingly likely that the British government will have to pull a rabbit out of the bag to reach a definitive Brexit outcome. What is clear, however, is just how divided the nation and its politicians have become on the Brexit issue.

The country is now facing a critical moment in the Brexit process, and the time is passing quickly. As a No Deal scenario looms ever nearer on the horizon, the next few weeks are crucial in deciding the type of Brexit that Britain will get and, connected to the outcome, the long-term economic future of the country.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
Share19Tweet
James F. Downes

James F. Downes

Lecturer in Comparative European and Asian Politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right

Related Posts

Mario Draghi
Business

EU Leaders Clash Over How to Tackle Energy Prices

by Staff Writer
October 20, 2022
Olaf Scholz
Business

Germany Defends Massive Energy Plan Against EU Critics

by Staff Writer
October 4, 2022
EU flags
World

Europe Tries to Save Energy Ahead of Winter in Face of Ukraine War

by Staff Writer
August 26, 2022
EU flags
World

EU Slaps Sanctions on Syrians Accused of Recruiting Mercenaries for Russia

by Staff Writer
July 21, 2022
gold bars
Business

European Union to Target Russian Gold With New Sanctions

by Staff Writer
July 15, 2022
Eurozone
Business

Eurozone Stocks Sink as Inflation Accelerates to Record High

by Staff Writer
May 31, 2022
Next Post
Saudi arabia prince purge anti-corruption

Before Khashoggi, 15 Saudi Journalists Were Abducted or Arrested This Year

People protesting in Poland

Polish President Appoints New Top Court Judges Despite Protests

Recommended

Damage from a series of powerful storms and at least one tornado is seen on March 25, 2023, in Rolling Fork, Mississippi

After Tornado Kills 25, Mississippi Faces More Extreme Weather

March 26, 2023
Transgender Army veteran Tanya Walker speaks to protesters in Times Square near a military recruitment centre

Tennessee Is A Drag on the First Amendment

March 26, 2023
participants of an artificial intelligence conference

How AI Could Upend the World Even More Than Electricity or the Internet

March 19, 2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping

China’s Path to Economic Dominance

March 15, 2023
Heavily armed police inspect the area near a Jehovah's Witness church where several people have been killed in a shooting in Hamburg, northern Germany

Eight Dead in Shooting at Jehovah’s Witness Hall in Germany

March 10, 2023
Myanmar Rohingya refugees look on in a refugee camp in Teknaf, in Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar, on November 26, 2016

US Announces $26M in New Aid for Rohingya

March 8, 2023

Opinion

Transgender Army veteran Tanya Walker speaks to protesters in Times Square near a military recruitment centre

Tennessee Is A Drag on the First Amendment

March 26, 2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping

China’s Path to Economic Dominance

March 15, 2023
An earthquake survivor reacts as rescuers look for victims and other survivors in Hatay, a Turkish province where hundreds of buildings were destroyed by the earthquake

Heed the Call of Our Broken World

March 1, 2023
Top view of the US House of Representatives

‘Cringy Awards:’ Who Is the Most Embarrassing US House Representative?

February 13, 2023
Protesters rally against the fatal police assault of Tyre Nichols, outside of the Coleman A. Young Municipal Center in Detroit, Michigan, on January 27, 2023

How Do Violent ‘Monsters’ Take Root?

February 3, 2023
George Santos from the 3rd Congressional district of New York

George Santos for Speaker!

January 16, 2023
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post