• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Saturday, May 21, 2022
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

The Strategic Folly of Reimposing Sanctions on Iran

Kelly McFarland And Ben Armbruster by Kelly McFarland And Ben Armbruster
11/15/18
in Opinion
Donald Trump speaks at a rally organized by the Tea Party Patriots against the Iran nuclear deal

Trump called the nuclear deal with Iran the 'the worst deal ever.' Photo: Nicholas Kamm, AFP

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

One of the most consequential national security decisions of Donald J. Trump‘s presidency passed by quietly last week as much of the media attention in the United States was focused on the midterm elections.

On November 5, the U.S. unilaterally reimposed oil and banking sanctions on Iran that were lifted as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the Iran nuclear deal is formally known. Trump claims he withdrew from the 2015 accord with the intention of turning up the heat on Iran to get a better deal. Others argue, rightly in our view, that the Trump administration’s ultimate goal is actually regime change.

But regardless of whether Trump is gunning for a better deal or regime change, reimposing these sanctions has no tactical or strategic value, and will only serve to isolate the United States, weaken our national security, and embolden America’s adversaries, including Iran.

Aside from the fact that reimposing these sanctions puts the U.S. in material breach of the JCPOA, perhaps the biggest flaw in Trump’s plan is that our allies and partners in the deal – the European Union, China, and Russia – want to keep it alive and have little interest in participating in new sanctions.

International Cooperation

Former President Barack Obama’s sanctions regime on Iran was so successful because he was able to wrangle the international cooperation needed to dramatically reduce Iran’s oil exports. Back then, the E.U., China, Russia and other large oil importing nations like India and South Korea all agreed that Iran’s nuclear program had to be reined in and that cutting back on buying Iranian oil was the first step towards doing just that. The Trump administration has nowhere near this level of cooperation, and thus it’s at best unclear whether Iran will feel a similar economic squeeze.

What’s more, Trump’s sanctions have the added effect of benefiting Russia, as it stands to gain handsomely in the absence of Iranian oil on the world market. Without the free flow of Iranian crude, Europe and Asia will undoubtedly turn more to Russia as an alternative source. Moscow also wants to throw Iran a lifeline by setting up a scheme to purchase Iranian oil for domestic consumption, thereby freeing up more crude for Russia to sell abroad.

The Iran sanctions have officially been cast. These are the most biting sanctions ever imposed, and in November they ratchet up to yet another level. Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States. I am asking for WORLD PEACE, nothing less!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 7, 2018

At the same time, Trump’s Iran policy is further alienating the U.S. from our European allies. While big European companies like Total and Siemens have pulled out of Iran to avoid American secondary sanctions, the E.U. is working on a so-called “special purpose vehicle” independent from the U.S. dollar-dominated international financial system to facilitate trade between small and medium-sized European companies and Iran.

Whether this mechanism succeeds or not remains to be seen, but the damage has been done. Our own allies have started to break away from the American dominated global financial system – something the Russians and Chinese have been pushing for some time –  thereby undermining U.S. economic might and global leadership.

Bad Policy

To be clear, Iran will feel some economic pain. Its currency value has already plummeted and its oil exports have been cut by about 1 million barrels per day. But the Iranians have weathered similar storms before. And it’s likely that Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign will fail to materialize, essentially closing the door on the possibility of Iranians returning to the negotiating table and thereby lessening the probability of creating the conditions for regime change. Even if Trump succeeded in near-zeroing out Iranian oil exports, he’d face another big problem: a spike in gas prices back at home.

The bottom line is that Trump abandoning the JCPOA and reimposing sanctions is bad policy: it drives us further from Europe, undermines the credibility of America’s diplomatic toolkit, threatens U.S. global economic leadership, potentially rewards rivals like Russia, and unlocks the constraints on Iran racing towards a bomb.

Indeed, when the dust settles from Trump’s sanctions, the Iran nuclear deal will either be on life support waiting for a new American administration to save it, or the regime in Tehran will decide that it has had enough.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani giving a speech in the southern Iranian coastal city of Chabahar
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Photo: AFP

Iran’s continued compliance with the nuclear agreement has been often overlooked, particularly considering that the main talking point of JCPOA opponents has been that Iran will cheat. But should efforts by Europe, Russia, and others to provide Iran with enough economic incentives fail, Tehran could very well respond by restarting elements of its nuclear program that had been frozen or rolled-back.

It’s clear then that the U.S. must return to full compliance with the JCPOA. The U.S. and its partners should focus on Iran’s nefarious and destabilizing regional actions, and not spend time worrying about issues that were rectified in 2015.

Unfortunately, it seems that Trump has put the U.S. back where it started, only more isolated than ever before, with the path to war reopened once again.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
Share4Tweet
Kelly McFarland And Ben Armbruster

Kelly McFarland And Ben Armbruster

McFarland is a US diplomatic historian and Director of Programs and Research at Georgetown University's Institute for the Study of Diplomacy. Armbruster is the communications director for Win Without War, a project of the Center for International Policy

Related Posts

Iranian flag
Democracy at Risk

HRW Urges Iran to Release Teachers Arrested in Crackdown

by Staff Writer
May 6, 2022
Morad Tahbaz
Middle East

Environmentalist Held in Iran Ends ‘Hunger Strike’: Daughter

by Staff Writer
March 29, 2022
US Capitol riot
National

Trump ‘More Likely Than Not’ Obstructed Congress: US Judge

by Staff Writer
March 28, 2022
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri
Middle East

Iran: Nuclear Deal ‘Within Reach’ If West Shows Goodwill, Ball in US Court

by Staff Writer
December 2, 2021
A noose is seen on makeshift gallows as supporters of US President Donald Trump gather on the West side of the US Capitol in Washington DC on January 6, 2021
Opinion

How Praise and Blame Rhetoric Are Poisoning American Democracy

by Ryan Skinnell
November 2, 2021
Pen America Gala 2021
Democracy at Risk

PEN America Honors Imprisoned Iranian Writers at 2021 Gala

by Staff Writer
October 6, 2021
Next Post
jamal khashoggi

Saudi Prosecutor Exonerates Crown Prince in Khashoggi Murder

Trump and Rouhani

How Iran Plans to Weather the Storm of US Sanctions

Recommended

Volkswagen logo

German Farmer Sues Volkswagen Over CO2 Emissions

May 20, 2022
Vladimir Putin

Russia Says Economy Grew 3.5 Percent in First Quarter

May 18, 2022
Mexico missing people

Over 100,000 People Reported Missing in Mexico, Data Reveals

May 17, 2022
Shireen Abu Akleh

Jerusalem Archbishop Condemns Israeli Police Raid at Journalist’s Funeral

May 16, 2022
A Lebanese election official stands at a polling station

New Group Threatens Lebanese Elections… and Potentially Middle East Peace

May 18, 2022
Israel

15 European Nations Urge Israel to Reverse Plans for More Settler Homes

May 13, 2022

Opinion

A Lebanese election official stands at a polling station

New Group Threatens Lebanese Elections… and Potentially Middle East Peace

May 18, 2022
A man holding a gun

Safely Back in USA, Land of Guns and Burgers

May 2, 2022
China Muslim Uyghurs

Unfair Politicization, Corruption, and the Death of Modern Olympism

April 23, 2022
Ukraine war

The Ukrainian Refugee Crisis and the Hierarchies of Western Compassion

April 20, 2022
Chinese leader Xi Jinping

How Wrong ‘How China Can End the War in Ukraine’ Is

April 1, 2022
Ukraine children

The War for Ukraine’s Lives and Minds

March 30, 2022
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post