• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

Let’s End This Now: The Final Days of the Trump Administration

Daniel P. Franklin by Daniel P. Franklin
07/08/20
in Opinion
US President Donald Trump

Donald Trump. Photo: Eric Baradat, AFP

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Presidential power varies in space and time. I have previously demonstrated that as presidents approach the end of their terms, their power begins to slip away. If that is true, then the same should be true for presidents who appear to be losing.

As of now, it appears that President Donald Trump is going to lose his bid for reelection. Of course, that can change, but with the election approaching and the size of the gap that exists in the polls, the more likely it is he leaves office on a date certain. Consequently, he begins to lose power.

This occurs for several reasons. For one thing, at the end of their term, presidents make promises they cannot keep and threats they cannot carry out, and a politician without the power to bargain isn’t much of a politician indeed.

Furthermore, the deliberateness of the policymaking process, reinforced by the separation of powers, makes quick, dramatic changes in the law almost impossible, especially when the president is low in the polls as Trump is now.

The question then is, what does the president do? And what about his opponents?

Roosevelt and Hoover

In 1932, Franklin Roosevelt won a massive victory against an incumbent president. In those days, the inauguration was in March, not January as it is now. Consequently, even after the election, Herbert Hoover still had roughly four months left in office. The economy was in shambles, and while Hoover didn’t have the tools to do anything about it, he did have some ideas and wished to recruit the president-elect to his cause.

But Roosevelt would have none of it. America’s new president had his own ideas, and they had nothing to do with balancing the budget and protecting the Gold Standard (in which the dollar’s value is directly linked to gold), two Republican nostrums of the time.

Hoover begged Roosevelt to join a united front in support of reforms that Hoover favored. From correspondence Hoover had with a friend, we know now that the president was trying to lock Roosevelt into policies that would make the New Deal all but impossible. Roosevelt listened but refused to go along.

Hoover-Roosevelt in Washington
Presidents Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt together for inauguration in Washington, January 1932. Photo: AFP/World History Archive

In the meantime, Roosevelt communicated to Democratic members of Congress that nothing was to proceed in the legislative process without the permission of the president-elect. Thus, the only significant thing that Congress did during the transition was to pass the 21st Amendment, the repeal of Prohibition.

On inauguration day, Hoover and Roosevelt barely spoke. Hoover was furious and believed that Roosevelt had exacerbated the Depression to make himself look good by contrast. Behind the scenes, however, Roosevelt had asked senior members of the Hoover Treasury Department to stay on and prepare for what become known as “the first 100 days.” The new Roosevelt Administration was able to hit the ground running, and Hoover holdovers were integral to the mix.

I bring this up to point out that we are not helpless over the next seven months, the time that Donald Trump may have left in office. And the Roosevelt story is not unique. In the final months of the Andrew Johnson administration (in 1868 Johnson was denied his party’s nomination), Ulysses Grant set up a government in waiting that was every bit as influential as the government in the White House.

The Administrative State

One major difference between 1932 and now is that the Federal Government is much more top-heavy in Federal Bureaucracy. While there are three basic classes of the policymaking function – legislation, rulemaking, and presidential edict – perhaps the most important at this time is in the role of the administrative state.

In the current environment, with the Democrats in control of the House, no legislation is going to pass that doesn’t have the imprimatur of the Democratic leadership. To be sure, Senate Republicans can still confirm Federal judges, but given the time left and the fact that most appointments end with the presidential term, the rest of the appointment power is essentially meaningless.

Rulemaking is also basically over for now. Absent an act of Congress, the only way that a policy can be changed is through changes in Federal Regulations, known as the Federal Code, or by Executive Order. Rules changes must be cleared through a process mandated by the Administrative Procedure Act. As a practical matter, rules changes adopted through the regular process take months and sometimes years. And that’s a good thing too, as rules changes become the applied interpretation of the law.

Thus, no new controversial rules changes will take effect given the time left in the first term of the Trump administration. And, just to add, it is as difficult to reverse an existing regulation as it is to adopt a new one. For example, the president doesn’t really have the power to reverse the rule on the treatment of transgender persons through Obamacare. He violates the Administrative Procedure Act as he is likely to find out.

President Can’t Rewrite the Law

Executive Orders are presidential proclamations that carry the force of law, but only until the president leaves office. But they must follow the law. For example, at the outset of the Korean War, President Harry Truman tried to head off a labor strike against the American Steel Industry by issuing an Executive Order seizing the steel mills. He argued that the United States was at war and that the government’s action was in pursuit of a national security goal.

The Supreme Court disagreed. The president, a 6-3 majority of the Court ruled, had no legal authority to seize the mills. Thus, the president can’t write the law absent a regulation or an act of Congress.

That being the case, it is incumbent on the Federal Bureaucracy to not only ask for clarification and legal basis of presidential orders, but it is required of them to refuse to carry out illegal orders. Just last month, regarding the recent street protests, the military signaled its commitment to its constitutional role. In other words, the military made it clear that it would not act as the praetorian guard for the Trump administration. The rest of the bureaucracy should commit to the same.

Federal Employees indeed put their jobs at risk if they refuse to carry out illegal or questionable presidential orders. But should Joe Biden win the presidential election, it might be useful for him to state that as soon as he is sworn in, he will empanel a Federal Reinstatement Board to reconsider the dismissal of any Federal Employees during this period.

When and if the president loses, he will still have 11 weeks left in his term. My advice to him is to go play golf and cooperate in the transition. For the president-elect, I have some other advice. More on the transition later.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
ShareTweet
Daniel P. Franklin

Daniel P. Franklin

Associate Professor Emeritus, Georgia State University

Related Posts

George Santos from the 3rd Congressional district of New York
Opinion

George Santos for Speaker!

by Stephen J. Lyons
January 16, 2023
Top view of the US House of Representatives
National

Chaos as US House Adjourns Without Choosing Speaker

by Staff Writer
January 4, 2023
Commuters waiting for buses in Metro Manila. Philippines
Opinion

Eight Billion and Counting…

by Stephen J. Lyons
November 29, 2022
Donald Trump
National

US Supreme Court Freezes Release of Trump Tax Returns

by Staff Writer
November 1, 2022
Donald Trump
National

US Capitol Riot Probe Votes to Subpoena Trump to Testify

by Staff Writer
October 13, 2022
Steve Bannon
National

Former Trump Advisor Bannon Charged With Fraud in New York

by Staff Writer
September 8, 2022
Next Post
Law enforcement officers wearing face masks are seen on duty at a checkpoint on the outskirts of Almaty, Kazachstan on March 19, 2020

Coronavirus 'Second Wave' Batters Ex-Soviet Central Asia

A women wears a mouth mask amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

Lives at Risk as Trafficking in Faulty Masks, Other Gear Surges: UN

Please login to join discussion

Recommended

A supporter of nurses' strike and NHS holds a placard

UK Faces Fresh Mass Strikes as Wage Talks Derail

February 1, 2023
Israeli security forces in Jerusalem

Palestinian Gunman Kills 7 in East Jerusalem Synagogue Attack

January 30, 2023
The Doomsday Clock reads 100 seconds to midnight, a decision made by The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, during an announcement at the National Press Club in Washington, DC on January 23, 2020

‘Doomsday Clock’ Moves Closest Ever to Midnight

January 25, 2023
Police work near the scene of a mass shooting in Monterey Park, California

California Lunar New Year Mass Shooter Dead, Motive Unclear: Police

January 23, 2023
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern

Race on To Replace Ardern as New Zealand Prime Minister

January 20, 2023
Pfizer logo and vaccines

Pfizer to Sell More Drugs at Cost to Poor Nations

January 18, 2023

Opinion

George Santos from the 3rd Congressional district of New York

George Santos for Speaker!

January 16, 2023
Commuters waiting for buses in Metro Manila. Philippines

Eight Billion and Counting…

November 29, 2022
Mahsa Amini protests

Imagining a Free Iran

October 24, 2022
Vladimir Putin

How 18th Century International Law Clarifies the Situation in Ukraine

September 29, 2022
Vladimir Putin

Falling for Putin

September 15, 2022
US President Donald Trump

Donald Trump Thanks You for Your Sacrifice

August 17, 2022
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post