• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Wednesday, May 31, 2023
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

COP24: Good Cop or Bad Cop?

Roger Jones by Roger Jones
12/14/18
in Opinion
Session of the COP24 Climate Conference in Poland

Session of the COP24 Climate Conference in Poland. Photo: AFP

282
SHARES
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Every year for past 24 years the Council of Parties (COP) has met to address the risk of global warming. Before, during, and after each meeting, the same questions are asked. Is or was it a good COP or a bad COP? Did hope triumph over expectations, or did the cold light of reality show the wreckage on the floor after the gig – where Status Quo kept playing the same tune over and over again: “Roll Over, Lay Down.”

Every year we hear the same laments. The UN is trying to establish a global government. The country-by-country emissions reductions pledges are nowhere near enough to avoid 2 degree Celsius warming (now 1.5 °C warming). Renewables are too expensive. Nuclear power is being ignored. Hard emission reductions will wreck the economy. The reason there is no policy consensus is because scientists are bad communicators. This is a global emergency, and governments should act as they do in wartime to achieve low carbon.

Let’s play good COP, bad COP and see where it gets us.

More than 14,500 people marched against climate change in Paris on October 13, 2018
More than 14,500 people marched against climate change in Paris on October 13, 2018. Photo: François Guillot, AFP

Goals

Will COP24 achieve its goals?

No. In fact, I am willing to bet that no COP will ever achieve its goals. This is both a good and a bad thing. One reason for this is that the pressures on different nations and nation groups preclude a common agreement that is too radical. However, not doing anything is also in the too radical basket, even for Donald J. Trump.

Time is Now

We have only x years to act to avoid dangerous climate change.

Putting a number on this is futile. The scientific and policy uncertainties mean that any number is as good/bad as any other number. When science first outlined the potential range of warming to 2100 back in 1990, then it was time to act. When is it too late? Only when things have become so bad, there is no capacity left. We have lots of capacity left to act.

Climate change is already dangerous. Holding a poisonous snake is dangerous, even if it hasn’t bitten you yet. Mass critical bleaching of corals reefs, the potential loss of ice-sheets, the imminent loss of food security in many regions are all snake venom. The critical issue now is to avoid catastrophic change. This will occur if large, coupled natural and human systems collapse, creating devastating knock-on effects that absorb all our capacity in responding.

Scientist’s Creation

The so-called consensus around catastrophic anthropogenic global warming has been manufactured by scientists who are (a) advocating UN-led global dictatorship or (b) in it for the money.

The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 6, 2012

This involves combining consensus on global warming theory, with consensus on the degree of risk. This misdirection combines two different types of measure: yes/no and plausible/implausible.

As to politics and money, most scientists would prefer to return to biology, ecology, paleontology, astronomy or whatever else they loved as a kid, instead of trying to counter organized resistance to climate change science.

Adaption

Adaptation is a copout and an admission of failure.

This one should have disappeared years ago, but still gets raised. Adaptation will be most successful when there is a strong mitigation policy. It is impossible to have a single adaptation policy for the whole range of global warming low to high.

We can only adapt to the lower emission scenarios and sometimes not even then. The highest emission scenarios are equivalent to terraforming, where people will be forced to eat algae, jellyfish, and soylent green (I am not kidding).

National Interest

This proposal is not in our national interest.

Acting on your national interest is not in your national interest. Acting based on global interest is in your national interest.

Damaging the Economy

Mitigation will cost jobs and damage the economy.

In high-wage countries, the mining and energy supply sectors have the fewest jobs per dollar of income and close to the highest emissions per job. Because alternative energy, energy efficiency, and adaptation are much more hands-on, they produce more jobs for lower emissions. In developing countries, ready access to alternative energy and appropriate technology will boost production and build resilience.

Balancing Act

Global warming is an environmental issue and we need to balance that with maintaining a healthy economy.

Smokes rising from stacks of a thermal power station, adding carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth’s atmosphere and contributing to global warming
CO2 emissions gradually accumulate in the earth’s atmosphere and contribute to global warming. Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff, AFP

Global warming is a moral issue. Economics should be a social science where value-setting is informed by moral issues, instead of what it is now – a recipe-book for the self-interest of the powerful. The top tier of the global economy is a massive casino that has almost no production value, fuelled by private debt, corruption, and tax concessions. Repurposing some of these funds to assist the most vulnerable would be a net boost to the production arm of the economy.

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Action should only be taken after a cost-benefit analysis.

Most cost-benefit analysis is based on a fictional baseline where there is no climate change and there is perfect knowledge of future climate in order to set a carbon price. Early action is penalized because damage costs accrue over time, but this is based on a fictional no-climate-change baseline.

A risk-based approach accepts the full climate damages from business as usual. The costs of reducing emissions are then subtracted from the benefits of reduced loss and damage. Early action is rewarded because the worst futures are avoided. If the low carbon economy is the new normal, reducing carbon will no longer be a cost – the Stone Age did not end because they ran out of stones.

Everyone’s Responsibility

It doesn’t matter what I do, I’m only one person.

The imperfect nature of international policy setting is not the end of the world, nor are the powerful forces of denial, encompassing politics, media, and industry-based unthink tanks. These stand as massive blocks to progress, too large for any one person overcome.

However, around these blocks flow the actions of cities and states, individuals and communities. The massive reductions in alternative energy costs and the willingness of people from both low- and high-income countries to do their part can ultimately swamp these barriers.

It takes a village to raise a child and a world to save itself.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
Share27Tweet1
Roger Jones

Roger Jones

Researching climate risk and the economics of green infrastructure at the Victoria Institute for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University

Related Posts

This aerial photograph taken on May 6, 2023 shows a landslide that engulfed Nyamukubi village, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
National

Toll From DR Congo Floods Rises to Nearly 400: Official

by Staff Writer
May 8, 2023
A flooded road in Batu Berendam in Malaysia's southern coastal state of Malacca
Environment

At Least Four Dead, Tens of Thousands Evacuated in Malaysia Floods

by Staff Writer
March 6, 2023
deforestation
Environment

Major Firms Not Doing Enough to Curb Deforestation: Report

by Staff Writer
February 15, 2023
People cool off with a fountain's water during a heat wave in Seville, Spain
Environment

UN Confirms 2022 Among Eight Hottest Years on Record

by Staff Writer
January 13, 2023
Shell
Environment

Greenpeace Sues UK Government Over Shell Gas Field

by Staff Writer
July 27, 2022
Joe Biden
Environment

Biden Vows Climate Action as Heat Waves Slam US, Europe

by Staff Writer
July 20, 2022
Next Post
Children in an orphanage play on a slide.

Does Australia's Move to Curb Orphanage Tourism go Far Enough?

Two Chinese men and a flag

Marriage Just a Click Away for China's Desperate Single Men

Recommended

Migrants waiting at the Turkish border.

Beyond Numbers: Confronting Europe’s Broken Border System

May 30, 2023
A noose is seen on makeshift gallows as supporters of US President Donald Trump gather on the West side of the US Capitol in Washington DC on January 6, 2021

Militia Leader Gets 18 Years in Prison Over US Capitol Attack

May 26, 2023
Customers queue to enter a re-opened Zara clothes shop

EU Targets Fast Fashion in Push for Durable Goods

May 23, 2023
A billboard showing the debt limit is seen in Washington, D.C.

US Republicans Upbeat on Prospects for Debt Deal

May 19, 2023
Military hardware rolls through Dvortsovaya Square during a Victory Day military parade in central Saint Petersburg

Pressing Russia, US Shares Nuclear Warhead Data Under Treaty

May 16, 2023
A man holding a gun

The NRA’s Continuing Agenda of Fear

May 12, 2023

Opinion

Migrants waiting at the Turkish border.

Beyond Numbers: Confronting Europe’s Broken Border System

May 30, 2023
A man holding a gun

The NRA’s Continuing Agenda of Fear

May 12, 2023
US Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas

A Supreme Folly 

April 24, 2023
Transgender Army veteran Tanya Walker speaks to protesters in Times Square near a military recruitment centre

Tennessee Is A Drag on the First Amendment

March 26, 2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping

China’s Path to Economic Dominance

March 15, 2023
An earthquake survivor reacts as rescuers look for victims and other survivors in Hatay, a Turkish province where hundreds of buildings were destroyed by the earthquake

Heed the Call of Our Broken World

March 1, 2023
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post