• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Tuesday, June 17, 2025
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Featured

Four Scenarios for Venezuela’s Growing Political Crisis

Staff Writer by Staff Writer
01/26/19
in Featured, World
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Photo: AFP

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

The political crisis in Venezuela has intensified since Juan Guaido proclaimed himself acting president on Wednesday, but what happens next may depend on the United States and the Venezuelan military.

In a country that has economically collapsed, with inflation forecast to hit a breathtaking 10 million percent this year, National Assembly chief Guaido said Wednesday he would “formally assume national executive powers” to end the “usurpation” of power by Nicolas Maduro.

Maduro has accused Washington of being behind an attempted coup and has cut diplomatic ties.

Here are four ways the situation could now unfold:


A transition

This is the solution Guaido favors: the formation of a “government of transition” and then the organization of elections.

Guaido urged the military, Maduro’s most powerful backers, to sever ties with the “dictator” in exchange for an amnesty.

But the military, for now, remains loyal to the head of state who has been in power since 2013.

If the army maintains its loyalty, the prospects for change will depend on the opposition’s ability to unite and stay united, to moderate its expectations and to accept a “longer-term transition,” said Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue, in Washington.

Things would move far more quickly if the military switched sides, but that would probably require amnesties for them and for some top Venezuelan officials, many of them accused by Washington of corruption, violations of human rights or drug trafficking.

Another factor that could accelerate the transition: if Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil (the U.S. buys one-third of its total exports, some 510,000 barrels a day last year), this would deliver a fatal blow to the economy and fracture Maduro’s base of supporters, according to the Capital Economics consultancy.

.@UN Security Council met urgently on Venezuela. @UNDPPA chief, Rosemary DiCarlo urged Member States to find a political solution that takes into account the wellbeing of the Venezuelan people. https://t.co/IKNJ40YLel pic.twitter.com/Hz9Ws0Br4M

— UN News (@UN_News_Centre) January 26, 2019


Maduro Hangs On

Even if the opposition is hoping for the military to turn against Maduro, “that is not likely to happen,” according to the Inter-American Dialogue’s Michael Shifter, who noted that army leaders only recently reaffirmed their support for the current president.

Hakim believes that if the “opposition fails to unify and the military maintains support for the government, this will probably mean continuing Chavista rule, likely with Maduro remaining in power.”

The country’s socialist leader was re-elected last May to a term ending in 2025, in balloting boycotted by the opposition and contested by the European Union and several Latin American countries.

Maduro might be able to rely on financial support from allies like China, Russia, and Iran, countries “more united by suspicion of U.S. interests than any sympathy for the Venezuelan leader himself,” said Paul Hare of Boston University.

Venezuela delivers some 300,000 barrels of oil a day to China in partial repayment for a debt of $20 billion. It also owes $10.5 billion to Russia, according to several consultancy firms.

Beijing and Moscow could “try to salvage the regime, perhaps by requiring some serious economic reforms and restructuring of the oil business,” Hare said. But the blade is double-edged: they might also demand Maduro’s departure — and his replacement by a “less politically toxic leader.”


The Army in Charge

If the army withdraws its support from Maduro and the opposition remains divided, the military could take control, “at least for a time,” Hakim predicted.

“The worst scenario” might then result, Shifter said, bringing “increased repression and possibly even widespread civil strife.”

“There are perils that come with having parallel governments,” he said.

Trump, moreover, has said that “all options are on the table,” a phrase understood to include a possible military intervention.

Here's what you need to know about Juan Guaido, Venezuela's self-proclaimed interim president pic.twitter.com/rLwQHn6Dsk

— Bloomberg Originals (@bbgoriginals) January 26, 2019


A negotiation

Maduro has said he is prepared to meet with his rival, but Guaido has rejected any “fake dialogue.”

Part of the international community favors that solution: the European Union sees Maduro’s presidency as illegitimate but has yet to recognize Guaido as president and has called for the creation of a “contact group” between the two camps.

Mexico and Uruguay also favor a negotiated solution.

For Shifter, the best outcome would be “a prolonged negotiation between a more united opposition and a government on the defensive.” It would be the fifth attempt at a negotiated solution between the government and the opposition since 2014.

With luck, he said, it could lead to the organization of new elections.

Recovering Rule of Law Will Not Be Enough to Reverse Venezuela’s Collapse

Share7Tweet
Staff Writer

Staff Writer

AFP with The Globe Post

Related Posts

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
World

Maduro Declared Venezuela Election Winner, Opposition Reject Result

by Staff Writer with AFP
July 29, 2024
A man holding a Venezuelan national flag during a protest against President Nicolas Maduro.
World

Venezuelans ‘Dying Slowly’ in Rat- and Roach-Infested Homes

by Staff Writer
October 28, 2020
Former Bolivian President Evo Morales
World

Morales Says Will Return to Bolivia After Ally’s Election Victory

by Staff Writer
October 19, 2020
Venezuela's interim President Juan Guaido. Photo: AFP.
World

UK High Court Recognizes Juan Guaidó as Interim Venezuelan President

by Victoria Mulville
July 6, 2020
Aerial picture showing gravediggers burying an alleged COVID-19 victim at the Vila Formosa Cemetery, in the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Photo: Nelson Almeida/AFP
World

Latin America’s Slums Facing Losing Battle Against Virus Spread

by Staff Writer
May 29, 2020
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro leaves after offering a press conference in Caracas, Venezuela, on January 25, 2019
World

Venezuela Arrests Two Americans for Failed ‘Invasion’

by Staff Writer
May 5, 2020
Next Post
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro at a naval base in Puerto Cabello, Carabobo State, on January 27, 2019

Is Venezuelan President Maduro's Fate in the Hands of the Armed Forces?

A sign is displayed on a government building that is closed because of the US government shutdown in Washington

US Shutdown Subtracted $11 Billion from GDP: Congressional Report

Recommended

Tens of thousands of protestors shut down Fifth Avenue in Manhattan on Saturday, April 5, 2025, protesting the Trump administration's abuse of the separation of federal powers as well as the deep cuts to governmental services overseen by presidential advisor Elon Musk.

Civil Society Is Holding the Line. Will Washington Notice?

June 17, 2025
An Iranian walking in front of a wall painting of the Iranian flag in Tehran

How Much Damage Has Israel Inflicted on Iran’s Nuclear Program?

June 16, 2025
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem on November 19, 2017

Israel MPs to Vote on Opposition Bid to Dissolve Parliament

June 11, 2025
Two protesters wave Mexican flags while standing on a vandalized Waymo vehicle during a demonstration in Los Angeles, California, on June 8, 2025, following a series of aggressive federal immigration operations in the city.

Unrest in Los Angeles Over Immigration Raids as Troops Sent by Trump Fan Out

June 9, 2025
US President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on August 4, 2020. Photo: Drew Angerer/AFP.

US Steel, Aluminum Tariff Hikes to Take Effect Wednesday: W. House

June 4, 2025
textile workers in Kenya

Workers’ Rights in ‘Free Fall’ Globally: Report

June 2, 2025

Opinion

Tens of thousands of protestors shut down Fifth Avenue in Manhattan on Saturday, April 5, 2025, protesting the Trump administration's abuse of the separation of federal powers as well as the deep cuts to governmental services overseen by presidential advisor Elon Musk.

Civil Society Is Holding the Line. Will Washington Notice?

June 17, 2025
A Black Lives Matter mural in New York City.

Fuhgeddaboudit! America’s Erasure of History

April 2, 2025
Bust of Deputy Rubens Paiva in the Chamber of Deputies

Democratic Brazilians Are Still Here

March 18, 2025
A woman from Guatemala

Dispatch From Central America

January 28, 2025
US President Donald Trump

Dear Trump Supporters: Is This the America You Wanted?

January 28, 2025
Putin talks to Trump in Hamburg

From Roosevelt to Trump: The Complicated Legacy of Personal Diplomacy

November 15, 2024
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post