• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Saturday, May 21, 2022
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

Is Venezuelan President Maduro’s Fate in the Hands of the Armed Forces?

David Pion-Berlin by David Pion-Berlin
01/27/19
in Opinion
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro at a naval base in Puerto Cabello, Carabobo State, on January 27, 2019

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro at a naval base in Puerto Cabello. Photo: AFP

77
SHARES
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Venezuela has been in turmoil before, but the events of recent weeks have been unprecedented, giving renewed hope to a political opposition that seemed all but defeated.

Juan Guaido, a young, little-known figure in Venezuelan politics, leaped from obscurity to familiarity when he became president of the National Assembly on January 5, and then boldly proclaimed himself caretaker president two and a half weeks later.

Guaido justified his action on constitutional grounds: last year’s re-election of Nicolas Maduro as Venezuelan president was rigged, tainted by widespread fraud and voter intimidation. That rendered Maduro’s presidency illegitimate, and his executive seat vacant. According to the constitution, the presidency must then revert to the head of the National Assembly until new elections can be held.

Revitalized Opposition

Swarms of Venezuelans from all social classes and walks of life turned out for the unofficial swearing in of Guaido on January 23. An opposition which seemed to have been beaten into submission in 2014 and again in 2017, suddenly looked as if it had a new lease on life.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Photo: AFP

But the rally, like so many before it, was also met by force, as police and national guard units clashed with protesters, leaving at least 20 dead. And it is repression that Maduro relies upon to safeguard his tyranny. Having alienated even hard-core working-class supporters of “Chavismo,” the political movement he inherited, and having plunged the nation into its worst economic depression in history, Maduro has lost all credibility. He now depends entirely on the cooperation of his security forces, and the military in particular, to prop up his tottering regime.

In fact, I would argue that the military is the key to Maduro’s survival, but also potentially the key to his demise. No amount of economic pressure from the outside will work to oust Maduro, given the financial support he has received from Russia and China. Diplomatic intervention by countries of the region has been tried, without success.

Armed Forces: Dealing Blow or Providing Support?

The decision by the Trump administration, along with half a dozen governments of Latin America, to officially recognize Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate president may have given a much-needed boost to the democratic opposition, but the repercussions of these moves are as yet not fully understood. Massive public uprisings from below can help destabilize the regime, but only if sustained over time. Ultimately, however, it will be the armed forces that either deal the crushing blow to Maduro’s tyranny or who continue to provide him with life-sustaining support.

World map showing countries supporting Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and those which supporting president of the opposition-led parliament, Juan Guaido, as interim leader.

How much longer will the armed forces stay loyal? The high command announced publicly on January 24 that it stood firmly with Maduro. Public proclamations, however, may hide dissatisfaction from within the ranks of more junior officers and the enlisted, many of whom worry what will become of them should Maduro fall and a new government take over, seeking reprisals against soldiers for human rights offenses.

Guaido smartly offered the military an amnesty from prosecution should it side with his political opposition and pull the rug out from under the regime. Still, there are powerful reasons why the military may not be tempted to tilt the scales in favor of the opposition.

Keeping Soldiers in Line

President Maduro has utilized sticks and carrots to keep his soldiers in line. Last year, he arrested close to 100 officers including two in command of infantry battalions in Caracas, while cashiering others to purify the ranks. But he has also made it worthwhile for officers, who occupy thousands of positions in federal and state government.

Eleven of 23 state governorships are in military hands, as are 9 of 34 ministries. Members of the armed forces have been cut into lucrative, state-managed drug trafficking rings, and have also been put in charge of the production and distribution of a very scarce commodity these days – food – which has predictably given rise to black markets and smuggling operations that have lined military pockets.

The importance to the military of this assignment cannot be underestimated in a country where inflation is thought to have reached 1,000,000 percent, purchasing power has evaporated, and wage increases are nearly meaningless. Having steady access to food for oneself and one’s family is priceless.

People queue up outside a supermarket in Caracas, Venezuela
The lines for supermarkets are long in Venezuela. Photo: AFP

Is this enough to keep the military in line? Perks and privileges certainly help, but military commanders are first and foremost preoccupied with internal unity. They want to avoid a split within the ranks that could tear their institution apart. If they sense a growing frustration and bitterness among officers of lower ranks that could spill over into outright dissent, they could be tempted to close ranks by forcing Maduro out of power.

Rebelling National Guard

Some fissures have already appeared. Twenty-seven members of the National Guard rebelled on Monday, January 21, seizing weapons from a command post. The rebels expressed anger over a military command and government that seems insensitive to their economic plight.

As the fourth arm of the military, the National Guard has been repeatedly called upon to do the government’s dirty work. They, along with the national police, are at the front lines of repression, making the arrests and firing on the protesters. Their willingness to get their hands bloody certainly has its limits. Should the Guard refuse to obey orders, then it would fall upon regular army units to step in. And should they too refuse, that would spell the end of the Maduro dictatorship.

For these reasons, all eyes should remain glued to the Venezuelan armed forces, as this latest Venezuelan political drama plays out over the ensuing weeks and months.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
Share77Tweet
David Pion-Berlin

David Pion-Berlin

Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Riverside. He is a Latin Americanist widely known for his research and writings on civil-military relations, defense, security, and human rights. Among his recent publications is 'Soldiers, Politicians, and Civilians: Reforming Civil-Military Relations in Latin America' (co-authored with Rafael Martínez), New York: Cambridge University Press, 2017

Related Posts

A man holding a Venezuelan national flag during a protest against President Nicolas Maduro.
World

Venezuelans ‘Dying Slowly’ in Rat- and Roach-Infested Homes

by Staff Writer
October 28, 2020
Former Bolivian President Evo Morales
World

Morales Says Will Return to Bolivia After Ally’s Election Victory

by Staff Writer
October 19, 2020
UK High Court Recognizes Juan Guaidó as Interim Venezuelan President
World

UK High Court Recognizes Juan Guaidó as Interim Venezuelan President

by Victoria Mulville
July 6, 2020
Latin America’s Slums Facing Losing Battle Against Virus Spread
World

Latin America’s Slums Facing Losing Battle Against Virus Spread

by Staff Writer
May 29, 2020
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro leaves after offering a press conference in Caracas, Venezuela, on January 25, 2019
World

Venezuela Arrests Two Americans for Failed ‘Invasion’

by Staff Writer
May 5, 2020
For Venezuela’s Opposition, the US is an Increasingly Uncomfortable Ally
Featured

In Venezuela Shift, US Asks Guaido to Renounce Power Claim – For Now

by Staff Writer
April 1, 2020
Next Post
A sign is displayed on a government building that is closed because of the US government shutdown in Washington

US Shutdown Subtracted $11 Billion from GDP: Congressional Report

Uighurs pray at the Id Kah Mosque in Xinjiang, China.

EU Team Gets Rare Access to China's Restive Xinjiang

Recommended

Volkswagen logo

German Farmer Sues Volkswagen Over CO2 Emissions

May 20, 2022
Vladimir Putin

Russia Says Economy Grew 3.5 Percent in First Quarter

May 18, 2022
Mexico missing people

Over 100,000 People Reported Missing in Mexico, Data Reveals

May 17, 2022
Shireen Abu Akleh

Jerusalem Archbishop Condemns Israeli Police Raid at Journalist’s Funeral

May 16, 2022
A Lebanese election official stands at a polling station

New Group Threatens Lebanese Elections… and Potentially Middle East Peace

May 18, 2022
Israel

15 European Nations Urge Israel to Reverse Plans for More Settler Homes

May 13, 2022

Opinion

A Lebanese election official stands at a polling station

New Group Threatens Lebanese Elections… and Potentially Middle East Peace

May 18, 2022
A man holding a gun

Safely Back in USA, Land of Guns and Burgers

May 2, 2022
China Muslim Uyghurs

Unfair Politicization, Corruption, and the Death of Modern Olympism

April 23, 2022
Ukraine war

The Ukrainian Refugee Crisis and the Hierarchies of Western Compassion

April 20, 2022
Chinese leader Xi Jinping

How Wrong ‘How China Can End the War in Ukraine’ Is

April 1, 2022
Ukraine children

The War for Ukraine’s Lives and Minds

March 30, 2022
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post