• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Thursday, May 26, 2022
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

Will Trump’s Border Wall Keep Mexican Migrants Out or Lock Them In?

Benjamin Waddell by Benjamin Waddell
01/31/19
in Opinion
Central American migrants climb the border fence between Mexico and the United States, near El Chaparral border crossing, in Tijuana, Baja California State, Mexico

Central American migrants climb the border fence between Mexico and the United States. Photo: Pedro Pardo, AFP

47
SHARES
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Earlier this month, I traveled to Tijuana, Mexico with a group of colleagues from Fort Lewis College to get a better sense of the situation along the United States’ southern border with Mexico.

Our trip coincided with the country’s longest partial government shutdown in history, which lasted 35 days and caused lasting damage to the national economy. President Donald J. Trump, who began the shutdown on December 22 by refusing to sign any legislation that didn’t include $5.7 billion for his border wall, argues that additional fencing is necessary to ward off the “invasion” of migrants attempting to cross into the U.S.

After a brief visit to McAllen, Texas on January 11, President Trump tweeted: “Humanitarian Crisis at our Southern Border. I just got back and it is a far worse situation than almost anyone would understand, an invasion!”

Humanitarian Crisis at our Southern Border. I just got back and it is a far worse situation than almost anyone would understand, an invasion! I have been there numerous times – The Democrats, Cryin’ Chuck and Nancy don’t know how bad and dangerous it is for our ENTIRE COUNTRY….

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 11, 2019

…The Steel Barrier, or Wall, should have been built by previous administrations long ago. They never got it done – I will. Without it, our Country cannot be safe. Criminals, Gangs, Human Traffickers, Drugs & so much other big trouble can easily pour in. It can be stopped cold!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 11, 2019

The problem is, it’s not the U.S. that’s being flooded by Mexican migrants, it’s Mexico.

Since 2005, migration from Mexico to the U.S. has averaged a net negative, meaning more Mexicans have returned home during this period than crossed into the United States. For example, between 2009 and 2014 return migrants to Mexico outpaced migration to the U.S. by 140,000 people. In other words, each year, roughly 23,000 more Mexicans return to Mexico than come to the U.S.

Proponents of tougher border security cite decreasing migration rates from Mexico as evidence of a sound investment. However, if investments in border security were driving lower rates of migration from Mexico, than Mexican migration would have begun to fall after the U.S. government started drastically increasing its expenditure on border security. But that’s not the case.

Decreasing Mexican Migration

The rate of Mexican migration to the U.S. began to fall in 2000, and it’s been steadily decreasing ever since. In fact, by 2013, more immigrants were coming to the U.S. from China and India than from Mexico.

So, if increased border security isn’t the cause of lower rates of Mexican migration, what is?

The real reason fewer Mexicans are coming to the U.S. has little to do with increased spending on homeland security. Migration from Mexico has dropped over the last two decades because life in Mexico is improving, and for the first time in recent history, Mexico’s middle class is expanding. And as the Mexican economy has expanded and opportunities have improved, fertility rates have plummeted from nearly 7 children per women in 1960 to just over 2 in 2015.

Population growth in Mexico has stabilized, and the country’s economy has done a better job of meeting the demands of its citizens. As a result, Mexico’s supply of potential migrants has dwindled in recent years.

Ironically, with social conditions improving in Mexico and economic expansion spreading throughout the country, locking down the U.S.-Mexico border may actually slow down the return of Mexicans to their homeland.

Border Wall

Walls are typically designed to keep people out, but in the case of the border wall between the U.S. and Mexico, additional miles of fencing and increased spending on border security is having the opposite effect.Map of the US-Mexico border According to the Pew Research Center, in 2000, only 35 percent of unauthorized migrants had been in the U.S. for more than 10 years. By 2016, more than 66 percent of unauthorized migrants reported living in the U.S. for at least ten years. And for Mexican nationals – who make up 75 percent of unauthorized immigrants living in the country – more than 80 percent had been in the U.S. for at least a decade.

This unexpected outcome is largely related to the rising cost of getting into the U.S. without documentation.

In years past, smugglers – known as polleros or coyotes – would charge between $1,500 and $3,000 to bring migrants into the U.S. from Mexico, but in recent years, the cost has pushed upwards to $8,000 per crossing.

As migrants at Casa del Migrante pointed out to me during my trip to Tijuana, longer stays in the U.S. have helped families overcome the rapid increase in smugglers’ fees and avoid the rising danger of crossing into the U.S. via inhospitable trails that run through the desert. A deported migrant from Michoacán, Mexico told me:

“I used to go back to Mexico at least once a year. I’d come work, then I’d go home. But now it’s too dangerous, so I stay as long as I can.”

The middle-aged man, who asked not to be named, told me that the last time he’d been to Mexico was 1999.

For the United States’ government, longer migrant stays represent a clear unintended consequence of tighter border security, which cost U.S. taxpayers $3.8 billion in 2016.

Ultimately, spending along the border has done little to deter undocumented migration, and has unexpectedly prolonged the stay of unauthorized immigrants currently living in the United States. As inconvenient as these outcomes might be for policymakers in Washington D.C., they are facts, nonetheless.

With this in mind, if the U.S. government is genuinely interested in designing immigration policies that work, they will have to begin by setting aside xenophobic fears and let empirical facts guide the design of their policies.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
Share47Tweet
Benjamin Waddell

Benjamin Waddell

Associate Professor of Sociology at Fort Lewis College in Durango, Colorado

Related Posts

Mexico missing people
World

Over 100,000 People Reported Missing in Mexico, Data Reveals

by Staff Writer
May 17, 2022
A man holding a gun
Featured

Safely Back in USA, Land of Guns and Burgers

by Stephen J. Lyons
May 2, 2022
Debanhi Escobar
World

Student’s Death Stokes Anger Over Mexican Femicide Crisis

by Staff Writer
April 29, 2022
US Capitol riot
National

Trump ‘More Likely Than Not’ Obstructed Congress: US Judge

by Staff Writer
March 28, 2022
Dollar bills held against a world map
Opinion

The Global Tax Won’t Fix Historically High Inequality, It Will Make It Worse

by Benjamin Waddell
February 21, 2022
People in the March For Our Lives rally against gun violence
Opinion

Walking Through a Tunnel of Sorrow

by Stephen J. Lyons
January 31, 2022
Next Post
71 million people in India living in extreme poverty, and universal basic income is intended to pull more people out of poverty

Elections India: Promise of Basic Income is Desperate Move to Woo Voters

Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), standing for MORENA party, cheers at his supporters

Mexican President Declares 'Drug War' Over

Recommended

The Onion

‘No Way To Prevent This,’ Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens’

May 25, 2022
police line

Teen Gunman Kills 15 at Texas Elementary School

May 24, 2022
refugees

More Than 100 Million People Forcibly Displaced, UN Says

May 23, 2022
Volkswagen logo

German Farmer Sues Volkswagen Over CO2 Emissions

May 20, 2022
Vladimir Putin

Russia Says Economy Grew 3.5 Percent in First Quarter

May 18, 2022
Mexico missing people

Over 100,000 People Reported Missing in Mexico, Data Reveals

May 17, 2022

Opinion

A Lebanese election official stands at a polling station

New Group Threatens Lebanese Elections… and Potentially Middle East Peace

May 18, 2022
A man holding a gun

Safely Back in USA, Land of Guns and Burgers

May 2, 2022
China Muslim Uyghurs

Unfair Politicization, Corruption, and the Death of Modern Olympism

April 23, 2022
Ukraine war

The Ukrainian Refugee Crisis and the Hierarchies of Western Compassion

April 20, 2022
Chinese leader Xi Jinping

How Wrong ‘How China Can End the War in Ukraine’ Is

April 1, 2022
Ukraine children

The War for Ukraine’s Lives and Minds

March 30, 2022
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post