• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Monday, July 14, 2025
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

‘Getting Russia Off Its Knees:’ How Putin Ensures His Legacy Far Beyond 2024

Alexander Titov by Alexander Titov
01/21/20
in Opinion
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and officials listen to the national anthem after president's address to the Federal Assembly at the Manezh exhibition hall in downtown Moscow on January 15, 2020

Russian President Vladimir Putin and officials listen to the national anthem after president's address to the Federal Assembly on January 15, 2020. Photo: Shamil Zhumatov, AFP

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Judging by international media reaction, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin shocked the world last week by announcing a series of reforms to the country’s Constitution. It’s not clear why so many observers of Russian politics were surprised.

It’s been widely known that a major watershed is coming up in 2024 when Putin is required to step down as president. It’s been equally obvious that Putin has been thinking about this, and a solution was always going to emerge from him sooner rather than later.

The fact that Putin announced the first steps towards the long-anticipated change shouldn’t surprise anyone. Putin and his aids in the Presidential Administration have had all the time they wanted to come up with a plan of what to do with the “2024 problem,” and they undoubtedly have a detailed strategy.

The problem for the rest of us is that no one knows exactly what their plan is.

Russian ‘Superpresidentialism’

The current Russian Constitution was adopted in December 1993 in the aftermath of a bloody armed conflict between President Boris Yeltsin and the Soviet parliament. As the winner in that conflict, Yeltsin tilted the balance of power overwhelmingly in favor of the presidency. Putin went even further by establishing control over remaining feeble centers of power such as the Duma, the regional governors, and the big business known as the oligarchs.

Yet, Putin has been strangely opposed to changing the Constitution to allow himself a permanent role as president, as many other post-Soviet leaders have. Simply removing term limits from the Constitution has always seemed too crude a way to maintain power. Putin consciously shied away from this in 2008 and certainly doesn’t want it to happen in 2024.

Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin
Putin (R) and Medvedev were governing Russia together for more than a decade. Photo: AFP

A temporary swapping of roles with his closest ally in 2008, when Dmitry Medvedev became a weak president with Putin as a strong prime minister, was clearly a one-off. It proved successful but far too risky a solution to try again.

Instead, Putin has chosen a new strategy. This seems to focus on dispersing political power more widely across various institutions, instead of having it almost entirely concentrated in the president’s office.

Putin’s Current Proposals

In the new proposals put forward by Putin, political authority will be divided between the president, who retains overall control of general policy direction and the security brief, and other collective institutions.

The Duma is expected to extend its powers to appoint the whole government instead of just confirming the president’s choice of a prime minister as it currently does. The Constitutional Court will be given new powers to strike down laws passed by the Duma.

The upper chamber known as the Federal Council will acquire the power to fire judges and to be consulted on key appointments to top security posts, a duty currently exclusively reserved for the president.

On top of all that, there are proposals for a formal, but yet undefined, role for the State Council (currently an advisory congregation of all regional heads and some top federal politicians) to be enshrined in the Constitution.

This looks like a much more elaborate plan compared to the simple swap of roles with Medvedev in 2008. And this time, the changes are intended to be permanent. To reinforce this sense of permanency, Putin promised a public vote to approve the proposals. This will make it much more difficult to unroll the changes by whoever ends up as president in 2024.

So, under these proposals, Russia will have much less concentrated authority. This is objectively a step in the right direction, even if it’s done for the wrong reason of preserving Putin’s power, whose precise role in this new configuration of power remains unclear.

Perhaps the clearest signal that the plans announced last week are a start of something fundamental was the sudden resignation of Putin’s closest political minion, the prime minister (and one-time president), Medvedev.

Plans for After 2024

Putin, born in 1952, will be almost at a prime age for a politician in 2024.

If you take the United States as an example, President Donald Trump is currently 73 years old, while potential Democratic party nominees Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg are both 77, and Bernie Sanders 78. Only Elizabeth Warren stands out by her youth at the gentle age of 70. And yet, one of them is likely to be the president next year.

It’s hard to see Putin, who currently holds absolute power, surrendering it in four years when he’ll be only 71 years old.

The issue here is not whether or not Putin will leave power in 2024: he won’t. Instead, what is happening is Putin laying down the foundation for the eventual transition, which will take place in the decade or so after 2024.

This is how one Russian paper today interprets Vladimir Putin’s proposal to change the Constitution: “In Russia there will be a tsar. And everyone knows his name.” “Putin isn’t ready to leave power. The transition will be from Putin to Putin.” #ReadingRussia pic.twitter.com/QI1oj6eUZ2

— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) January 17, 2020

It’s very tempting to see Putin following Chinese paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s example, who retained power and influence well into his late 80s, even when resigning from formal posts. But to follow Deng’s model, Putin would need to have not only his successor in place but a designated successor’s successor too, as Deng had with Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Of course, the system broke down with Xi Jinping’s rise to power in 2012, but that was years after Deng’s death in 1997 at the age of 92.

The key to Deng’s enterprise was ensuring his policies, captured in the phrase “peaceful rise of China,” survived long after its author’s death. Similarly, Putin undoubtedly wants his legacy, summed up in his expression “getting Russia off its knees,” to carry on long after he is no longer there. This requires putting in place institutional and personnel changes that will preserve the current course set by Putin for the long term.

New Government, Old Challenges

Putin’s choice for Mikhail Mishustin, the little-known head of the Federal Tax Agency, as the new prime minister is interesting. There is still plenty of time for an interim PM like Mishustin to kickstart the economy by implementing the necessary reforms, something which Medvedev has clearly struggled with, and then put in the true successor nearer to 2024.

The Financial Times dubbed Mishustin “Russia’s taxman of the future” now promoted to prime minister. Mishustin transformed the country’s notoriously corrupt and inefficient system into the world’s best one. For example, while the Russian economy grew 2 percent on average in the last decade, tax collection went up by 39 percent.

Russia: The State Duma (National Parliament) approved President Vladimir Putin's candidate and up to now Russian Federal Tax Service chief Mikhail Mishustin (*) as the new Prime Minister of Russia.

383 of the 450 MPs voted for the confirmation, 41 abstained, no one was against.

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) January 16, 2020

Western sanctions have put a strain on Russia’s economy. The authorities responded by pushing through some necessary reforms, previously long delayed because of their unpopularity.

The increase in retirement age and the VAT and greater budgetary discipline, including less money for the military, were part of the reason why Russia has been in such rude macroeconomic health. It runs large current account and budget surpluses, has one of the world’s lowest sovereign and corporate debts, and its inflation is at a historic low. Its Achilles hill is the slow growth of 1 to 2 percent per year and stagnant or falling real wages.

Russia’s Fate

The question remains why Putin has decided to do it all now. Four years is enough time to implement the changes, put the new system in place, and see it how it works.

Crucially, there will be Duma elections in 2021. Forcing the constitutional changes now means that the next Duma elections are already done on new principles of greater control over the government.

Putin’s notice of impending changes drew inevitable parallels with Russia’s first president Yeltsin. Both men were at an almost identical age 68 and 67 years old at the time of their big announcements.

The contrast between Putin’s proclamation of intended reforms – confident, powerful, and with plenty of time to spare compared to Yeltsin’s tear-shedding sudden resignation speech on New Year’s Eve in 1999 – couldn’t be greater.

The similarity in their age belies not just the contrast in their political fortunes but shows a different fate for Russia in the foreseeable future.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
ShareTweet
Alexander Titov

Alexander Titov

Lecturer in Modern European History at the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics of Queen’s University Belfast, Northern Ireland

Related Posts

A man holds a Romanian national flag during an anti-corruption demonstration in Romania's capital Bucharest.
World

Russia Denies Interfering in Romania Elections

by Staff Writer with AFP
December 5, 2024
Putin talks to Trump in Hamburg
Opinion

From Roosevelt to Trump: The Complicated Legacy of Personal Diplomacy

by Tizoc Chavez
November 15, 2024
Ukraine invasion
World

EU Lawmakers Approve New $38B Loan for Ukraine

by Staff Writer with AFP
October 22, 2024
Workers fix an election campaign billboard of the Socialist Party reading "We vote the star, we vote the socialists. It is logical" in Chisinau on February 13, 2019
World

Moldova Uncovers ‘Unprecedented’ Pro-Russia Vote Rigging

by Staff Writer with AFP
October 3, 2024
An elderly woman pulls a trolley bag past a destroyed building in Bakhmut in Ukraine's Donetsk
World

Russian Strike Kills 51 in Ukrainian City

by Staff Writer with AFP
September 4, 2024
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
World

Ties With Russia Entering New Era, N. Korea’s Kim Say

by Staff Writer with AFP
June 19, 2024
Next Post
Iranian Foreign Minister and foreign ministers of major world powers stand for a photo after reaching a historic nuclear deal in 2015 that dropped sanctions in exchange for IAEA monitoring

The State of the Iran Nuclear Deal, Explained

US President Donald Trump

Trump Impeachment Trial Begins With Fight Over Rules

Recommended

Ursula von der Leyen

EU Ministers Weigh Response to Latest Trump Tariff Threat

July 14, 2025
UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese

UN Says US Sanctions on Expert Sets ‘Dangerous Precedent,’ Must Be Reversed

July 11, 2025
Women in Afghanistan wearing a blue burqa

ICC Seeks Arrest of Taliban Leaders Over Persecution of Women

July 9, 2025
Kenya, Nairobi, 2024-07-16. Protesters in the streets

Nairobi Tense as Kenya Marks Democracy Uprising

July 7, 2025
President Donald Trump

Trump Wins ‘Phenomenal’ Victory as Congress Passes Flagship Bill

July 4, 2025
University students march in protest towards the Istanbul Municipality in Sarachane as they demonstrate against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 21, 2025.

‘Remember Charlie Hebdo!’ Protesters Seethe at Istanbul Magazine

July 2, 2025

Opinion

Donald Trump

Fact vs. Fiction: The Trump Administration’s Dubious War on Reverse Discrimination

June 18, 2025
Tens of thousands of protestors shut down Fifth Avenue in Manhattan on Saturday, April 5, 2025, protesting the Trump administration's abuse of the separation of federal powers as well as the deep cuts to governmental services overseen by presidential advisor Elon Musk.

Civil Society Is Holding the Line. Will Washington Notice?

June 17, 2025
A Black Lives Matter mural in New York City.

Fuhgeddaboudit! America’s Erasure of History

April 2, 2025
Bust of Deputy Rubens Paiva in the Chamber of Deputies

Democratic Brazilians Are Still Here

March 18, 2025
A woman from Guatemala

Dispatch From Central America

January 28, 2025
US President Donald Trump

Dear Trump Supporters: Is This the America You Wanted?

January 28, 2025
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post