• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Sunday, January 29, 2023
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

How the Opportunist in the Kremlin Took Advantage of Coronavirus

Regina Smyth by Regina Smyth
03/24/20
in Opinion
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin

Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Photo: Andrej Isakovic/AFP

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Russian President Vladimir Putin took advantage of the coronavirus outbreak to announce his support for a proposal that allows him to evade constitutional term limits for a second time. Under this constitutional “reset,” Putin would be eligible to remain in office until 2036.

The proposed changes would preserve the two-term limit in the constitution but allow Putin to compete again in 2024 under the new legal structure. This decision was sanctioned by all of Russia’s regional parliaments and the Supreme Court. It all but ensures Putin’s candidacy in the next election. Given the regime’s control over electoral processes, it will also ensure his victory.

The rollout of this new strategy was pure pageantry. Russia’s first female in space, Valentina Tereshkova, took the floor in the Duma and proposed two strategies to challenge existing term limits. A debate ensued, and deputies adjourned to consult with the president by phone.

Putin responded by coming to the parliament floor. He gave a prepared speech that reversed his earlier advocacy for new leadership. He proclaimed that he would return to the presidency to address the turbulence in Russia and many countries around the world.

Winner-Take-All Logic of Russia’s System

The timing is important because, despite the president’s popularity, support for the constitutional changes first presented in January 2020 has been soft. Almost 50 percent of Russians reported that they believed that Putin’s intentions to remain in office motivated the initial proposals.

A referendum, scheduled for April 22, will provide Russian citizens the opportunity to express their opposition. While the popular vote is not binding, the need to falsify support to prevent a loss would escalate ongoing but intermittent protest actions across Russia’s large cities.

This uncertainty over leadership succession extended into the political elite who were jockeying for position to succeed Putin. Constitutional reforms that strengthened the presidency reinforced the winner-take-all logic of the system.

The proposed amendments also define more positions of influence under the president, including membership in the newly strengthened National Security Council and the Federation Council, the Upper House of Parliament. These jobs are intended to buy off rivals.

Managing the Opposition

President Putin’s long rule has also provoked recent mass unrest. In the summer and fall, protest was increasing, and Putin’s return to office is likely to galvanize the opposition further.

The strategy undermines the value of elections and is likely to raise the feelings of anger and indignity. Similar events led to broad protests against falsified elections in December 2011. It may also link opposition across the political spectrum and provoke action among Communists and nationalist leaders in the regions as it did in the 2011-2012 protest cycle.

The coronavirus outbreak provided an opening for the Putin administration to manage opposition and shape the next election cycle. The Kremlin’s announcement coincided with growing Russian awareness of the disease and will enable it to take quick action if the political situation deteriorates.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and officials listen to the national anthem after president's address to the Federal Assembly at the Manezh exhibition hall in downtown Moscow on January 15, 2020
Russian President Vladimir Putin and officials listen to the national anthem after president’s address to the Federal Assembly on January 15, 2020. Photo: Shamil Zhumatov, AFP

The public health crisis and the social-distancing solution being used around the globe provide a fail-safe excuse for denying protest permits to opposition leaders. Canceling university and high school classes will undermine the capacity of students, the most active opposition to the regime to date, to join in protest events. Even if meetings are held, safety precautions will undermine participation and make the opposition appear foolish.

The threat of the virus also allows the Kremlin to postpone the popular vote on the constitutional reforms until it can shore up support. It is also possible that the government will combine the constitutional reform with a snap parliamentary election to create one high-turnout event. This step will limit the need for multiple falsified votes.

Risky Strategy

The Russian electoral management system designed to manufacture regime victories relies on at-home and online voting processes that obscure both turnout and vote choice. The block-chain process employed in Moscow’s 2019 elections was modified to obscure vote totals and enable manipulation.

Despite these advantages, the strategy is risky. The Russian government moved to prevent the spread of the virus by aggressively limiting contact with those exposed to it. In Moscow, the facial recognition system designed to track protest is being used to identify anyone who breaks the self-quarantine requirements. Yet, concerns are growing that the spread is not being accurately reported in the state-controlled media.

Analysts argue that despite President Putin’s investments in the healthcare system, it is not prepared for the pandemic. Regional medical care is uneven at best. Urban centers, where the spread of the disease is most likely, regularly experience drug shortages. Rumor and false information are sowing confusion, blaming the virus on the West and integrating the call for national stability with responding to the healthcare crisis.

Russia’s Healthcare

The potential for a state failure surrounding the virus should concern President Putin. Since the presidential election in 2004, Putin has promised, and funded with great fanfare, national projects to increase national healthcare. He renewed these promises in conjunction with the January proposal of constitutional reforms. A significant death toll and human suffering will demonstrate the cost of Putin’s 20 years in office.

Russian disinformation taps into coronavirus fears.

Russia has for decades pushed disinformation around health care scares to benefit its geo-political goals. https://t.co/IwQPrDGJAL

— Sara Fischer (@sarafischer) March 19, 2020

The timing of these maneuvers also raises the question of what the changes mean for Russia’s future. Putin’s power rests on four pillars: elite loyalty, control of coercive forces, domination of the airwaves, and core support in the small cities and the countryside. Only his core support, which remains genuine but also linked to policy responsiveness, is consistent with Putin’s claims that he governs a democracy.

This decision confirms that he has removed all uncertainty about the authoritarian nature of his regime. It is likely to diminish his core support further and wake up the opposition. The Kremlin will likely increase its reliance on repression and disinformation to maintain power.

In the meantime, corruption and economic stagnation will continue, creating a dismal future for the Putin generation.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
ShareTweet
Regina Smyth

Regina Smyth

Associate Professor of Political Science at Indiana University Bloomington. Her new book, Elections, Protest and Authoritarian Regime Stability: Russia 2008-2020 is forthcoming this year

Related Posts

Soledar lies 15 kilometres (nine miles) from the city of Bakhmut, which Russia has been trying to seize for months
World

Fate of Ukraine’s Soledar Unclear as Wagner Claims Control

by Staff Writer
January 11, 2023
A woman undergoing COVID test in China
Featured

Soaring Covid Cases Shine Light on China’s Healthcare Gap

by Staff Writer
January 11, 2023
Russian passports
World

EU Won’t Recognize Russian Passports From Occupied Ukraine

by Staff Writer
November 10, 2022
Russia Today
World

Russian TV Host Apologizes for Calls to Burn Ukrainian Children

by Staff Writer
October 24, 2022
Arne Schoenbohm
World

German Cybersecurity Chief Sacked Over Alleged Russia Ties

by Staff Writer
October 18, 2022
Ukraine protest
World

Rape Used in Ukraine as a Russian ‘Military Strategy:’ UN

by Staff Writer
October 14, 2022
Next Post
Container used to collect COVID-19 testing samples at a drive-thru testing facility in Arlington, Virginia.

Coronavirus: A Cruel Reminder of Our Most Vulnerable Communities

US President Donald Trump

In Addition to Money, the Coronavirus Crisis Requires Strong Leadership

Recommended

The Doomsday Clock reads 100 seconds to midnight, a decision made by The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, during an announcement at the National Press Club in Washington, DC on January 23, 2020

‘Doomsday Clock’ Moves Closest Ever to Midnight

January 25, 2023
Police work near the scene of a mass shooting in Monterey Park, California

California Lunar New Year Mass Shooter Dead, Motive Unclear: Police

January 23, 2023
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern

Race on To Replace Ardern as New Zealand Prime Minister

January 20, 2023
Pfizer logo and vaccines

Pfizer to Sell More Drugs at Cost to Poor Nations

January 18, 2023
Rescuers inspect the wreckage at the site of a Yeti Airlines plane crash in Pokhara, Nepal

At Least 67 Killed in Nepal Plane Crash

January 16, 2023
George Santos from the 3rd Congressional district of New York

George Santos for Speaker!

January 16, 2023

Opinion

George Santos from the 3rd Congressional district of New York

George Santos for Speaker!

January 16, 2023
Commuters waiting for buses in Metro Manila. Philippines

Eight Billion and Counting…

November 29, 2022
Mahsa Amini protests

Imagining a Free Iran

October 24, 2022
Vladimir Putin

How 18th Century International Law Clarifies the Situation in Ukraine

September 29, 2022
Vladimir Putin

Falling for Putin

September 15, 2022
US President Donald Trump

Donald Trump Thanks You for Your Sacrifice

August 17, 2022
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post