More than two years after a peace deal ended the devastating war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, a power struggle within the once-dominant TPLF party has sparked fears of renewed conflict.
Could these rising tensions lead to violence so soon after one of the century’s deadliest conflicts that killed an estimated 600,000 people?
What is the TPLF?
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) ran the whole of Ethiopia for nearly three decades until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a non-Tigrayan, took power in 2018.
His takeover led to months of tension with the TPLF leadership, eventually leading Abiy to send troops to Tigray in November 2020, accusing their forces of attacking federal army camps.
This triggered two years of horrific war between Tigrayan rebels and government forces backed by militias and Eritrean troops. It finally ended with a November 2022 peace treaty, known as the Pretoria Agreement.
A new interim administration was created in Tigray with TPLF veteran Getachew Reda in charge, though overseen by the federal government.
But divisions have emerged in recent months between Getachew and the TPLF’s leader, Debretsion Gebremichael.
What are they fighting about?
Getachew faces criticism over delays in implementing the peace deal – particularly the failure to expel Eritrean forces who supported the federal government against the Tigrayans, and return the million people displaced by the war.
The Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) had previously stayed neutral in the Getachew-Debretsion dispute.
But in January, a dissident group within the TDF accused Getachew’s administration of undermining “the Tigrayan people’s national interest and engaging in treason.”
One foreign expert, who did not want to be named, estimated around 200 commanders supported the letter.
Getachew described it as declaring “a coup d’etat.”
In early March, he attempted to suspend three TDF generals and accused Debretsion’s faction of trying to “take over the whole of Tigray.”
This week, Debretsion’s forces took control of the municipalities in state capital Mekele and second city Adigrat, putting their own mayors in place.
Many residents, already deeply weary of war, are panicking over the threat of renewed conflict with reports of bank runs and sold-out flights.
Getachew has asked for assistance from the federal government in Addis Ababa, though said this should not be military in nature.
The federal government has not responded publicly.
Will Eritrea get involved?
There is concern in Addis Ababa that Eritrea, its historic rival that gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, will exploit the unrest.
Eritrea’s rhetoric has been increasingly bellicose. Last month, its information minister accused Ethiopia of “waging an intense and unacceptable campaign against Eritrea” and committing “malicious provocations.”
A security source told AFP on condition of anonymity that armed Ethiopian convoys were heading towards the region of Afar, which borders Eritrea, in recent days.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki‘s dissatisfaction with the 2022 peace agreement, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed‘s ambitions for a Red Sea port and geopolitical interest from the Middle East have fueled the deteriorating tensions, said Kjetil Tronvoll, Oslo University professor specializing in the region.
That has left the “two countries inching closer to a new war,” he said.
