• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

What’s Next in Brexit Saga Now that May’s Deal is Off the Table?

Ben Williams by Ben Williams
01/17/19
in Opinion
British Prime Minister Theresa May arrives in Brussels for a European Union summit

British Prime Minister Theresa May. Photo: John Thys, AFP

10
SHARES
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

The nature of the parliamentary defeat for Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal (by 230 votes) is unprecedented. Not since the 1920s has a U.K. government suffered a rejection of one of its policies on such an extreme scale in the House of Commons lower house.

The sense of shock at this episode stems from the high-stakes issue involved, and also because unlike the U.S. political system, in British politics the executive typically has majority control of the legislature. Even on the rare occasions that they don’t, they can usually negotiate the support of sympathetic smaller parties to get important bills passed into law. 

Stubborn Opposition

Not having outright control of Parliament has become familiar territory for Theresa May, as this has been the scenario she has faced since the 2017 general election when she failed to secure a clear parliamentary majority. She consequently made a deal to secure the support of the 10 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MPs from Northern Ireland, and this has provided her with a “working majority” to get most of her legislative business through Parliament over the past 18 months.

However, her apparent capacity to manage such challenging political circumstances was shattered by the nature of this excessive and high-profile Brexit-related defeat. Such a development can, therefore, be viewed as a humiliating personal and political setback for the prime minister, with over 100 of her own MPs and all of the DUP’s parliamentarians failing to support her in this landmark vote.

Flow chart describing what possibly happens next in the Brexit process

The warning signs of such stubborn opposition to May’s Brexit policy direction have been evident for some time, and even though she delayed the timing of this crucial debate until after Christmas to supposedly win over critics, it appeared to make little or no difference to the eventual outcome.

Indeed, the extent of the vote against her proposals to leave the E.U. surprised many observers and political commentators in terms of how high it actually was. This suggests that opposition to it has been hardening rather than softening since it was publicly announced last November, and those who opposed it were from both the anti-Brexit and pro-Brexit wings of her Conservative Party.

Some critics have subsequently accused the prime minister of putting party politics before the national interest and wasting crucial time in the process, particularly as the March 29 departure date for Brexit draws nearer.

Unique Times in British Politics

Based on comparable government setbacks in British political history, a rejection of this nature would typically signal the end of the career of most prime ministers. However, these are currently unique, unpredictable, and unprecedented times in British politics.

Within this context, the overwhelming rejection of her Brexit deal doesn’t automatically mean the end of Theresa May’s premiership, and she has a track record for displaying significant powers of durability in the wake of previous setbacks. May has already survived the unexpected loss of Conservative seats at the 2017 general election, although criticism and pressure on her grew in the wake of this major disappointment.

Nevertheless, her position has since been further protected when she overcame an internal challenge to her party leadership by some of her own Conservative MPs last month. This means that there cannot be a further formal Conservative leadership contest until December 2019. She has been relatively stabilized since and bolstered further by the stark divisions within her Cabinet, her parliamentary party, the broader House of Commons, and the main opposition Labour Party.

UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn
Leader of Britain’s opposition Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn. Photo: Geoff Caddick, AFP

For its part, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour is not convincing sufficient numbers of voters that it could offer a better deal, and in the process is struggling to “sing from the same hymn sheet,” with some Labour MPs prioritizing demands for a general election to resolve the Brexit deadlock, with others forcefully arguing for a second referendum or “people’s vote.”

These widespread splits at the senior political level are consequently further reflected in an increasingly polarized British population. Ultimately, there is no obvious rival contender capable of offering a credible and coherent alternative, which on a practical level means that Theresa May currently retains her position in 10 Downing Street by default.

Vote of No Confidence

To add to May’s recent woes, the very next day following her record parliamentary defeat, her stumbling government was faced with a formal vote of no confidence tabled by the Labour Party. This was seemingly part of a strategy to maintain the momentum of political pressure on the embattled prime minister, yet such methods are rarely successful. The last time a government was ousted after a vote of confidence was in 1979.

May consequently won the confidence motion fairly comfortable as predicted by 19 votes (325-306), for the fundamental reason that none of her internal Conservative critics want a general election when it is not constitutionally required until 2022. Results of a general election would be uncertain and unpredictable, which could result in some of her MPs losing their parliamentary seats, and could even put the entire Brexit process in jeopardy.

Neither does the DUP for that matter, the minority partners of the Conservatives who have been vocal about their fears of a left-wing Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour administration. While the outcome of this vote of confidence marked a positive about-turn from the previous evening, it did little to resolve how to take the Brexit process forward.

Looming Departure Date

As the deadline for E.U. departure beckons, various options lie ahead. A hard or soft Brexit, a No Deal Brexit, a second referendum, a delayed Brexit, and a further general election are all possible outcomes.

The British Parliament is fractured and May survives at least in the short-term. In the aftermath of her record defeat, she has offered “olive branches” to opposition politicians as she pursues a more bipartisan approach.

Yet she remains vulnerable, and a well-organized Cabinet “coup” could be the mechanism that finally removes her from office. If this happens, the emergence of a new prime minister would add yet another destabilizing layer to the ongoing Brexit saga.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
Share10Tweet
Ben Williams

Ben Williams

Tutor in Politics & Political Theory, University of Salford, UK

Related Posts

Customers queue to enter a re-opened Zara clothes shop
Environment

EU Targets Fast Fashion in Push for Durable Goods

by Staff Writer
May 23, 2023
Mario Draghi
Business

EU Leaders Clash Over How to Tackle Energy Prices

by Staff Writer
October 20, 2022
Olaf Scholz
Business

Germany Defends Massive Energy Plan Against EU Critics

by Staff Writer
October 4, 2022
EU flags
World

Europe Tries to Save Energy Ahead of Winter in Face of Ukraine War

by Staff Writer
August 26, 2022
EU flags
World

EU Slaps Sanctions on Syrians Accused of Recruiting Mercenaries for Russia

by Staff Writer
July 21, 2022
gold bars
Business

European Union to Target Russian Gold With New Sanctions

by Staff Writer
July 15, 2022
Next Post
A sign is displayed on a government building that is closed because of the US government shutdown in Washington

Beyond Compromise: Government Shutdown Reveals US Politics at Crossroads

Paris On Knife-Edge Ahead of New ‘Yellow Vest’ Protests

Same Old Elite? Macron's 'Revolution' Fails With Fed Up French

Recommended

A noose is seen on makeshift gallows as supporters of US President Donald Trump gather on the West side of the US Capitol in Washington DC on January 6, 2021

Militia Leader Gets 18 Years in Prison Over US Capitol Attack

May 26, 2023
Customers queue to enter a re-opened Zara clothes shop

EU Targets Fast Fashion in Push for Durable Goods

May 23, 2023
A billboard showing the debt limit is seen in Washington, D.C.

US Republicans Upbeat on Prospects for Debt Deal

May 19, 2023
Military hardware rolls through Dvortsovaya Square during a Victory Day military parade in central Saint Petersburg

Pressing Russia, US Shares Nuclear Warhead Data Under Treaty

May 16, 2023
A man holding a gun

The NRA’s Continuing Agenda of Fear

May 12, 2023
US Panel Recommends Nonprescription Use of Contraception Pill

US Panel Recommends Nonprescription Use of Contraception Pill

May 11, 2023

Opinion

A man holding a gun

The NRA’s Continuing Agenda of Fear

May 12, 2023
US Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas

A Supreme Folly 

April 24, 2023
Transgender Army veteran Tanya Walker speaks to protesters in Times Square near a military recruitment centre

Tennessee Is A Drag on the First Amendment

March 26, 2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping

China’s Path to Economic Dominance

March 15, 2023
An earthquake survivor reacts as rescuers look for victims and other survivors in Hatay, a Turkish province where hundreds of buildings were destroyed by the earthquake

Heed the Call of Our Broken World

March 1, 2023
Top view of the US House of Representatives

‘Cringy Awards:’ Who Is the Most Embarrassing US House Representative?

February 13, 2023
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post