• About Us
  • Who Are We
  • Work With Us
Tuesday, June 17, 2025
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
39 °f
New York
44 ° Fri
46 ° Sat
40 ° Sun
41 ° Mon
No Result
View All Result
The Globe Post
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion

Adapt, Abate, or Suffer – Lessons from Hurricane Dorian

Gary Yohe, Richard Richels, and Henry D. Jacoby by Gary Yohe, Richard Richels, and Henry D. Jacoby
10/22/19
in Opinion
Hurricane Dorian is seen approaching The Bahamas

In September, hurricane Dorian striked the Bahamas. Photo: AFP

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

There is no way to minimize the incomprehensible misery and destruction that hurricane Dorian inflicted on the Bahamas. For nearly two days, anguished inhabitants were subjected to unfathomable suffering and heartbreak from a Category 5 hurricane that would just not go away.

Putting their lives back together will be the beginning of recovery after years of grief and demolition. The international effort to provide humanitarian assistance is just getting underway, and the needs are enormous – both in the immediate term and perhaps over the next decade.

Dorian is just one example of extremely damaging events whose intensity and frequency can be attributed in large measure to a human-induced changing climate. Indeed, its exaggerated strength in the middle of a very active hurricane season was a well-known signature of this link, but its stalling over the Bahamas is evidence of a new signature.

Climate Change and Hurricanes

Although it is difficult to tie any single storm to global warming, correlations between trends in temperature and the character of hurricanes have been evident for some time. Now it is becoming clear that climate change is altering the behaviors of atmospheric systems that steer storms of all sizes. They are showing a tendency to weaken at very inopportune times. This means that the hurricanes and cyclones that are growing in intensity due to historically hot oceans and air temperatures are now frequently being deprived of any sense of direction.

New science explains why tropical cyclones around the world have, alarmingly, become prone to just sitting still for a while until conditions change. Hurricane Dorian was not the first storm to show this behavior. Harvey (2017) stalled over Houston, and Florence (2017) stalled over the Carolina coastline. Dorian joined a growing and dangerous club of enormous storms that sometimes get lost. Since then, typhoon Hagibis (the worst storm in Tokyo in 60 years) joined the club.

As a result, storms’ destructive potentials derived from increased storm surge, elevated rainfall totals, and intensified winds, wind gusts, and tornadoes are becoming an even greater source of enormous risk. The damages from stalled tropical cyclones have simply exploded.

These new insights add renewed urgency to confronting two fundamental questions: how should we respond to growing climate risks, and are we prepared for the increasing risks?

Responding to Growing Climate Risks

In 2007, the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded by consensus of over 280 nations that reacting to climate change “involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation.”

“Iterative” means that we should expect to make adjustments as an uncertain future unfolds and new science emerges. “Risk” is the product of the likelihood of an event and the consequences that it would impose on natural and social systems. “Risk management” is not a foreign concept; its application tells us to take account of more than just the most likely future. We do it all the time in our personal lives: we install locks for our cars and houses, invite guard dogs into our lives, and buy insurance. In responding to climate change, the same concept is being applied on a national and international scale.

“Adaptation” means working to minimize consequences. Mitigation implies reducing the strength of the sources of these consequences: abating global warming by reducing emissions.

This video captures the history of #climatechange in 45 seconds.

Add up all emissions since 1850 and the U.S. remains the biggest carbon polluter in history. Shouldn’t it be a leader in advancing #climate solutions?

Check out https://t.co/gXdF2YPaW1 to help tell your story pic.twitter.com/CbZQA0gJ6x

— WRI Climate (@WRIClimate) March 27, 2019

Abatement (mitigation) is essential, but it must be recognized that the climate problem cannot “be fixed” or “rolled back.” We are already committed to warming of between 1 and 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Even if we were to stop emitting polluting gases today, the pent-up heat in the oceans would put us closer to the upper part of this range. Achieving a 1.5-degree limit is therefore virtually impossible. A 2-degree limit is wildly aspirational, but even a 3-degree limit will be difficult to achieve.

And so, we are left with a combination of three choices to consider: to adapt, abate, or suffer.

In making investments in adaptation, resources are critical and in short supply. In the case of Dorian, there was enough time to get people in the United States out of harm’s way, but options designed to preserve residential and commercial property, protect infrastructure, or save ecosystems were alarmingly few. Sadly, by way of contrast, residents of the Bahamian Islands had nowhere to go and their properties were not nearly as robust, and so, they suffered the greatest damages.

Are We Prepared?

Coastal communities around the world are getting an idea of what the future might look like, and it is scary. Risk management tells these communities that they may have to be satisfied with getting people out of danger as efficiently as possible when needed. They should also begin to put longer-term measures into place: productive investments that would limit the storm surges, improve road networks for escape, strengthen building standards, reduce power system vulnerability, and other physical versions of insurance. These investments take time and require resources.

A men walks down a flooded street, where houses have collapsed, after Hurricane Maria had hit the island of Puerto Rico
A man walks down a flooded street where houses have collapsed after Hurricane Maria hit the island of Puerto Rico in 2017. Photo: Hector Retamal, AFP

In the longer term, planners should consider investments whose streams of benefits accumulate over many decades. Governments of all scales must recognize that climate risk exists so that they can leverage private investments. Federal governments must prepare for hazards that span multiple states and provide aid for jurisdictions that are resource-starved.

In all cases, planners, governments, and citizens must prepare to handle the residual effects of possible futures that could overwhelm their plans, and all must recognize that the suffering caused by those residuals could be immense.

Risk Management

“Adapt, abate, or suffer are our only choices,” said scientist John Holdren multiple times during his eight-year tenure as President Barack Obama’s senior advisor on science and technology issues. He was right.

Since we live on a planet where climate plays an enormous role in determining the frequencies and intensities of extreme events that can affect our lives, we must strive to invest in projects, policies, and technologies that make the worst futures less likely and the best futures more likely. We need to devote significant resources to plans, programs, and technologies that can abate the pace of climate change by reducing emissions even as we invest significantly in adaptation.

That is what risk management looks like at a national or global scale.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.
ShareTweet
Gary Yohe, Richard Richels, and Henry D. Jacoby

Gary Yohe, Richard Richels, and Henry D. Jacoby

Gary Yohe is the Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in Connecticut. Richard Richels directed climate change research at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). He also served on the National Assessment Synthesis Team for the first US National Climate Assessment. Henry D. Jacoby is the William F. Pounds Professor of Management, Emeritus in the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and former co-director of the M.I.T. Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

Related Posts

A Black Lives Matter mural in New York City.
Opinion

Fuhgeddaboudit! America’s Erasure of History

by Stephen J. Lyons
April 2, 2025
Smoke from the Palisades Fire in Pacific Palisades, California, from Santa Monica, California, on January 7
National

Los Angeles Fire Deaths at 10 as National Guard Called In

by Staff Writer with AFP
January 10, 2025
President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shake hands during a meeting in New York on September 25, 2019
World

Zelensky Says ‘Unpredictable’ Trump Could Help End War

by Staff Writer with AFP
January 2, 2025
A flooded road in Batu Berendam in Malaysia's southern coastal state of Malacca
World

‘Dangerous New Era’: Climate Change Spurs Disaster in 2024

by Staff Writer with AFP
December 27, 2024
President Donald Trump in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House.
National

Trump Wishes ‘Merry Christmas’ to ‘Left Lunatics’ in Frenzy of Social Posts

by Staff Writer with AFP
December 27, 2024
US President Donald Trump inspects border wall prototypes
National

Trump Confirms Plan to Use Military for Mass Deportation

by Staff Writer with AFP
November 18, 2024
Next Post
President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shake hands during a meeting in New York on September 25, 2019

The Case for Pro-Trump Opposition to Ukrainian Influence

Women demonstrating in Rojava. Photo: AFP

Rojava, Lost? Turkish Offensive Threatens to Destroy a Radical Democratic Experiment

Recommended

Tens of thousands of protestors shut down Fifth Avenue in Manhattan on Saturday, April 5, 2025, protesting the Trump administration's abuse of the separation of federal powers as well as the deep cuts to governmental services overseen by presidential advisor Elon Musk.

Civil Society Is Holding the Line. Will Washington Notice?

June 17, 2025
An Iranian walking in front of a wall painting of the Iranian flag in Tehran

How Much Damage Has Israel Inflicted on Iran’s Nuclear Program?

June 16, 2025
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem on November 19, 2017

Israel MPs to Vote on Opposition Bid to Dissolve Parliament

June 11, 2025
Two protesters wave Mexican flags while standing on a vandalized Waymo vehicle during a demonstration in Los Angeles, California, on June 8, 2025, following a series of aggressive federal immigration operations in the city.

Unrest in Los Angeles Over Immigration Raids as Troops Sent by Trump Fan Out

June 9, 2025
US President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on August 4, 2020. Photo: Drew Angerer/AFP.

US Steel, Aluminum Tariff Hikes to Take Effect Wednesday: W. House

June 4, 2025
textile workers in Kenya

Workers’ Rights in ‘Free Fall’ Globally: Report

June 2, 2025

Opinion

Tens of thousands of protestors shut down Fifth Avenue in Manhattan on Saturday, April 5, 2025, protesting the Trump administration's abuse of the separation of federal powers as well as the deep cuts to governmental services overseen by presidential advisor Elon Musk.

Civil Society Is Holding the Line. Will Washington Notice?

June 17, 2025
A Black Lives Matter mural in New York City.

Fuhgeddaboudit! America’s Erasure of History

April 2, 2025
Bust of Deputy Rubens Paiva in the Chamber of Deputies

Democratic Brazilians Are Still Here

March 18, 2025
A woman from Guatemala

Dispatch From Central America

January 28, 2025
US President Donald Trump

Dear Trump Supporters: Is This the America You Wanted?

January 28, 2025
Putin talks to Trump in Hamburg

From Roosevelt to Trump: The Complicated Legacy of Personal Diplomacy

November 15, 2024
Facebook Twitter

Newsletter

Do you like our reporting?
SUBSCRIBE

About Us

The Globe Post

The Globe Post is part of Globe Post Media, a U.S. digital news organization that is publishing the world's best targeted news sites.

submit oped

© 2018 The Globe Post

No Result
View All Result
  • National
  • World
  • Business
  • Interviews
  • Lifestyle
  • Democracy at Risk
    • Media Freedom
  • Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Columns
    • Book Reviews
    • Stage
  • Submit Op-ed

© 2018 The Globe Post